Buhler Industries, Inc. (TSE: BUI)

Buhler Industries (BUI) is a manufacturer of high-quality tractors and other related equipment for use in the agricultural industry. They are the only manufacturer of such tractors in Canada and one of four in the world.

The following screen brought this company to my attention:

• Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) greater than 10%
• Price to Book value less than 2
• 5-year earnings growth greater than 5%
• Debt to Capital less than 50%

What I was expecting to find was a company perhaps having a competitive advantage and that should be trading well above its book value but for some reason was able to be bought relatively cheap. BUI definitely wasn’t what I was screening for but I’m happy to have found it. The only reason it showed up on this screen was due to its turnaround performance in FY2008. After 5 straight years of declining sales and abysmal returns on capital, this company suddenly showed an ROIC of almost 17% in 2008 and reported its largest sales number since revenues started to decline in FY2003. This definitely warranted looking into further.

BUI is currently trading at a price/earnings (P/E) of 6.25, a price/book of 1.13 and a price/book (tangible) of 1.29. The company traded at an approximate average P/E of 18 over the previous 5 fiscal years. This definitely looks cheap but the question remains, is it unusually cheap or is the low price warranted? With a market cap of $136 million and no analysts covering the stock to my knowledge, there is definitely a possibility that this company is flying under the market’s radar only to be noticed at a future date.

Coming to BUI’s rescue in FY2007, the company’s worst reporting year since FY2000, was a Russian company by the name of Novoe Sodruzhestvo. This company’s reputation in Russia is, fittingly enough, that they acquire and transform factories. As is apparent from their track record, Novoe Sodruzhestvo lives up to their reputation. Even more fitting is that one of their previous acquisitions is the largest producer of combines in Russia. If you don’t know what a combine is, all that matters is that they are fixed onto tractors and used in agriculture. The Russians have already begun diligently working on their plans for BUI, which include introducing new products to the North American market as well as taking advantage of the Russian company’s distribution network in Eastern Europe. Over 160 official representatives of the combine manufacturer in Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia will support the distribution into new markets.

The results of the new ownership have so far been promising. The new owners restructured sales and production activity to be more efficient and reinvigorated the work force with some changes at the management levels. In addition, the Russian’s network overseas enabled the company to ship double the amount of tractors as in the previous year. There is room for improvement, which we can expect to see, as suppliers couldn’t keep up with the production level. The company has already begun improving their supply chain and efforts have been successful to date. Next year’s plans are to further develop the product to cater to client tastes, develop the dealer network through an aggressive marketing budget and more finance options, and to further improve the supply chain by finding replacements for weak suppliers.

Before even attempting to arrive at a value for a company it is important to understand the company and its assets as well as the strategic positioning and the current environment in which the company is situated. Only then can an estimate of fair value be arrived at with conviction. Prior to arriving at or relying on the following numbers it is helpful to read the company’s annual reports, most recent quarterly report and to visit the company’s website as well as those of its competitors. Obviously the more time and effort spent understanding the company and its industry, the better. The largest risk I see going forward is the strengthening Canadian dollar and the impact this may have on the amount of international sales and/or the conversion of those earnings into Canadian dollars. I believe this to be mitigated however by the company's continuing operational improvements as well as by the margin of safety employed in arriving at an entry price.

Based on the current capital structure of 30.2% debt-to-capital and 69.8% equity-to-capital I found a weighted average cost of capital of 8.41%, using proprietary measures. With a ROIC (replacement value of balance sheet) of 4.02% in the last 12 months, earnings power value (EPV) would be expected to be below net asset value (NAV). EPV was found to be $5.65 per share with the major driver being normalized zero-growth free cash flows of $12 million. NAV was found to be $8.75 per share with the major drivers being hidden balance sheet assets (product portfolio and customer relationships) of $33.71 million.

If you would like to understand these numbers in greater detail please see my explanatory articles.

Remember, as value investors we do not want to project future growth unless a company has a sustainable competitive advantage and as such I do not project growth for BUI in my valuation. Rather I see the new management as knowledgeable, capable and as motivated to bring the company’s EPV in line with the competitive state of NAV. It is for this reason that I give an 80% chance to this being accomplished, which implies an intrinsic value of $8.13 per share for the equity.

Utilizing a 33% margin of safety, an entry price of $5.44 is recommended. At its current price of $5.44 this stock should be a valuable one to purchase and to hold onto for the long-term.

Disclosure: Long BUI

Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT)

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) is a “global security company principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems and products.” LMT is in a sector that has been hard-hit twice in a short time span. As the markets were weighing the impact on defense stocks of a change in administration, the credit bubble burst bringing future government spend on the sector into question. LMT stock today is down 35% from its high of $120 (Q3 of 2008) while the S&P is down just 20% in the same period. This leaves LMT trading at around $75 with a P/E of 9.92, well below its long run average of 15. Throughout the current recession, LMT has remained profitable and has had no issues pertaining to credit.

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The outlook for the industry is unpredictable at the moment as the recessionary environment is the priority of governments around the world. The United States government, the company’s largest customer is also currently occupied with ongoing concerns such as health care reform and energy initiatives in addition to programs to stimulate the economy. Longer term, large annual deficits and federal debt may have an impact on government defense spending. While the ultimate size of future defense budgets is uncertain, it is currently indicated that overall defense spending will continue to increase over the next few years but at a lower rate of growth than has been seen.

LMT’s customers are split as follows: 84% of net sales to the US government, 13% to foreign governments, 3% to commercial and other customers. The US government is a very stable customer, as they have a military reputation to uphold and they can print money. Despite all the talk about decreased government spending on defense, this will not be sustained long term as our world slowly returns to a multi-polar system. These developments will only bring an increase in defense spending as governments attempt to maintain their countries’ defence capability in the global arena. This is already demonstrated by the high level of negotiated backlog LMT has; approximately $80.9 billion, of which 58% will still be remaining after one year. Regarding the uncertainty of government spending going forward, LMT feels it is well positioned to take advantage of areas where the government has already indicated increased funding; namely intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support for the warfighter, cybersecurity, helicopter maintenance and training, and lift, mobility, and refueling aircraft. LMT provides a diverse product offering to the industry and is well positioned to take advantage of these areas of increased spending while other segments may suffer. This company may have been knocked for being in an industry with such an uncertain near-term future, but it is well positioned to thrive within it. Additionally, the company is pursuing a strategy that will see it “expand and complement our existing products and services by moving into adjacent businesses in which we believe that our core competencies will enable us to successfully compete.” Areas of opportunity the company foresees are “the need for more affordable logistics and sustainment, expansive use of information technology and knowledge-based solutions, and vastly improved levels of network and cybersecurity,” all national priorities. The company expects revenue growth to exceed the growth in the Department of Defence’s budget, as LMT’s revenues historically have not been dependent on supplemental funding requests (the requests beyond those for critical recapitalization and modernization programs) where cuts are most likely to happen.

The current debt to capital ratio of approximately 57% is high due to a reliance on one major customer – this affects the estimated equity risk premium. Using 60% as the long run target debt/capital ratio, 5.2% as the cost of debt (current yield to maturity) and 11.1% as the cost of equity (equity risk premium added to cost of debt), yields a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for the firm of 6.41%. As a quick return on invested capital (ROIC) is 24.3% for the last 12 months, earnings power on an equity value per share basis (EPV) is expected to be significantly greater than net asset value per share (NAV).

A thorough valuation of LMT shows an EPV of $85.4 and a NAV of $48.5. This is in line with ROIC (replacement value of balance sheet) of 9.27%, which is greater than WACC. The competitive advantage which gives rise to the EPV-NAV discrepancy seems highly sustainable as it is based both on relationships (government connections) and capabilities (proprietary technology). Additionally, there are high barriers to entry in this industry as the government is generally a captive customer of LMT for upgrades, parts and service. It would be very difficult if not impossible for a competitor to take away market share from any of LMT’s existing products.

The value of growth plays a part in the valuation of LMT as the company has a stated goal of growth, both organically and through acquisitions, which will add value with ROIC being greater than WACC. The 5-year average growth in net-income of 20%, while likely not sustainable in the long run, lends credibility to assuming a long-run growth rate of 3%. Applying a value of growth multiplier to EPV at this rate of growth yields an intrinsic value for LMT of $108.5 per share.

As always, I recommend incorporating a margin of safety in order to account for sensitivity in my calculations. A reasonable margin of safety implies an entry price of approximately $76. As such, I believe LMT is a great purchase at its current price of around $75.

Disclosure: Long LMT

Goodfellow Inc. (TSE: GDL)

Goodfellow Inc. (TSE: GDL) is a remanufacturer and wholesaler of lumber products and hardwood flooring. They have over 7000 customers, mainly in Eastern Canada and the United States. I found them by conducting a screen querying profitable companies trading below book value per share with a trailing P/E under 10. Running some quick numbers got me very interested in this little company as not only is it trading below book value but it is trading below current assets after subtracting all liabilities. I jumped on the chance to value this company as on the surface I thought it was a definite buy at this price.

I arrived at a net asset value (NAV) for GDL of $19.67 per share assuming a replacement value of the balance sheet. This took into account my estimation of the value of customer relationships as they seem to be very important in GDL's industry and these were not previously accounted for as any sort of intangible on the balance sheet.

An earnings power value (EPV) for the company of $8.69 per share was found by extrapolating forward normalized earnings from the last 12 months. Normalized zero growth cash flows were found for the trailing 12 months and were then divided by the estimated cost of capital of 7.5% in order to obtain the value of a perpetuity with no growth.

The EPV well below NAV makes sense as GDL is currently returning approximately 5% on invested capital (replacement value of balance sheet). By comparing this to the cost of capital of 7.5% it is apparent that the company is underutilizing its assets. I like how management is focused on keeping costs down and on how management makes clear that capital expenditures are kept to the value of depreciation (essentially replenishment but not growth expenditures) - they are not trying to grow the company as this would only destroy value with the return on capital being less than its cost.

The current trading price of $7.90 per share seems to be based on the company's earnings power minus perhaps the market's own margin of safety due to the unknown prospects for GDL's industry moving out of this recession. GDL mainly serves the housing market which has been decimated over the past 12 months and it is anyone's guess what the prospects are for the industry.

The fact that GDL can be bought for less than its current assets, after satisfying all liabilities, has no implications for an investor. The company has a stable balance sheet, is profitable and operates in a viable industry - it is not going to be liquidated anytime soon. The only benefits an investor will see from this company are in the form of earnings to equity. As the shares are trading in line with EPV, buying shares in this company would essentially be speculating as to the prospects for the industry as a whole. If the industry picks up GDL will surely prosper. However if the industry prospects get even worse then you can bet that the company's shares will move in lockstep.

As a value investor I refuse to speculate on the industry and would rather know that I am buying a company for below its true worth. I see no catalyst that may bring EPV closer to NAV as management seems content with the operations (except perhaps for the suffering top-line due to current market conditions). As such my intrinsic value for the company is $8.69 per share as found for EPV. Applying a satisfactory margin of safety implies an entry price of around $5.80 per share. As shares are currently trading around $7.90 I will be staying away from this company for now.

Disclosure: None